Six structural commitments, in the order they enter an analysis: an explicit assumption map (a causal DAG), a defensible range instead of a single number, hierarchical models that borrow strength without over-claiming, a data-quality tier on every estimate, a documented rule for when evidence is too thin to act, and outcome capture so calibration is checked against reality.
In the published 2026 realized-price benchmark, every one of the 180 annual indices carries a green, yellow, or red sample-size flag. Read the full method or the public record.